Business activity as measured by regional Federal Reserve branches has also been poorer than projected.Ī similar story is at play outside of the US, with Citi’s measurements of how economic reports in G10 countries have fared compared with estimates also falling into negative territory. US consumer confidence fell sharply below estimates two weeks ago, followed by weaker than expected reports on retail sales and the pace of new home construction days later. US data have underwhelmed economists’ predictions for much of the past month, while in recent days, these reports have started missing the mark by the greatest degree since the pandemic was punishing the country last year, according to an economic surprise index collated by Citigroup.

Several closely watched US economic measures published in recent weeks have come in well below Wall Street expectations, indicating the powerful economic growth from the depths of the Covid crisis may be losing steam. US and international data releases are missing forecasts at an accelerating pace, highlighting rising investor angst that the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant will slow the pace of the global economic recovery.

Global citi surprise index